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CIM Bank weekly brief.

Keep up to date with the latest financial market news with CIM Banque's weekly analysis.

Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash

Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash

The euro still can’t make it!

The euro is also falling against the franc and moving away from parity. At CHF 0.9600, the euro is at its lowest level since the floor was abandoned in March 2015. This trend is not expected to be rev...

2022-08-17

Photo by Maxim Hopman on Unsplash

Photo by Maxim Hopman on Unsplash

Bank of England raises rate

The main markets started last week with the momentum of July. However, they lost some ground on Friday after the release of the US employment figures. While these very good figures reassured investors...

2022-08-10

Photo by Pepi Stojanovski on Unsplash

Photo by Pepi Stojanovski on Unsplash

Federal Reserve increases rate

Economic indicators have slowed recently, but inflationary risks remain high and the labour market remains extremely tight. This is essentially how the Federal Reserve justified raising its key rate b...

2022-08-03

Photo by Immo Wegmann on Unsplash

Photo by Immo Wegmann on Unsplash

Euro: the end of negative rates

All eyes are now on the Fed, which is finishing a two-day meeting today. A poll showed that 80% believe that the Federal Reserve will massively raise rate again with a 75-point hike. The other 20% ar...

2022-07-27

The euro recovers before the ECB meeting

In any case, this week the news is mainly focused on the Old Continent. The European Central Bank is holding its monetary policy meeting tomorrow (Thursday 21st) and, after ending debt purchases, it i...

2022-07-20

The euro’s unbroken fall

On the other side of the Atlantic, at the June FOMC meeting, the Fed noted in its minutes published last week that inflationary pressures had not yet shown signs of abating and may last longer than pr...

2022-07-13

Dollar and gas are going up

The dollar regained some ground at the start of the month despite a reduced trading volume due to the Independence Day holiday in the US and the start of the traditionally less active summer period. T...

2022-07-12

Mounting worries about the global economy

Despite the poor economic data recently published, equity markets rebounded at the end of last week as interest rate expectations were revised downwards. Unrelenting high inflation has prompted centra...

2022-06-30

Rising interest rates

The Fed responded to investors’ expectations by raising its key interest rates by 75 basis points to 1.50%, its biggest increase since 1994. Its director, Jerome Powell, reaffirmed his determina...

2022-06-23

Looking for the peak

Last Thursday, the European Central Bank decided, as expected, to end its bond purchases as of 1 July. Ending the fiscal stimulus was a prerequisite for the upcoming rate hikes. There is now little do...

2022-06-15

The yen drops to a 20-year low against the dollar

The burning question of the moment remains: how high can US rates rise and will they negatively impact the economy at some point? In comments last week, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said that “right n...

2022-06-08

The dollar declines in May

Despite losing some ground in recent days, the euro recorded its strongest monthly gain of the year in May. At the same time, the dollar has fallen back from the leading position it held in the early ...

2022-06-01

And now the SNB!

The forex market has had a few busy days in the last week. As such, the EUR/CHF exchange rate stood at 1.0500 on Wednesday before falling below 1.0250 on Thursday. Risk aversion rose with the drop in ...

2022-05-25

The ECB will follow the FED

Buoyed by expectations of a rate hike by the Fed and by very favourable yield spreads, the dollar is once again trading at record highs for 2022 at 1.0350 against the euro on Friday and 1.0065 against...

2022-05-18

The Fed increases rates by 50 basis points

Last Wednesday at the end of its monetary policy meeting, the Fed decided to raise its interest rates by 50 basis points. This is the biggest increase in the last 22 years. The Fed had already initiat...

2022-05-12

The Euro continues to fall

Despite the positive news for the euro, it has so far been unable to recover and continues to fall against the dollar. Emmanuel Macron’s victory in France, good German economic figures, various comme...

2022-04-27

In wating for the FED…

The greenback remains unstoppable and is keeping the pressure on the single currency with just hours to go before the end of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. Rate hike expectations are rising. Altho...

2022-05-04

Inflation fears everywhere

The EUR/USD pair has remained stable over the last five days. The single currency is still under pressure and is trading at its lowest point of the year as it looks the conflict in Ukraine will contin...

2022-04-13

The euro is once again under pressure against the dollar and the franc

The evolution of the EUR/USD has been strongly influenced by the conflict in Ukraine, so it is not surprising to see the pair under pressure again. So safe-haven currencies are on the rise as the euro...

2022-04-06

War and Peace

A relatively quiet week lit up yesterday as peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place in Turkey. Even if, per the Russian delegation, there is a long way to go before an agreement can b...

2022-03-31

First rate hike for the Fed

On the geopolitical front, the war in Ukraine is entering its fourth week. Bombardments are increasing, including in the west of the country on military bases close to the Polish border, a country tha...

2022-03-23

The FED meets amid Ukraine crisis

In Switzerland, the unemployment rate fell further in February to 2.5% from 2.6% the previous month.
...

2022-03-16

Markets are reeling as war knocks again on Europe’s door

After two weeks of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, markets are still struggling to stabilise. Safe havens are in high demand, commodities are soaring to the point where the rise in wheat prices i...

2022-03-09

Oil keeping higher

The United States and the European Union have decided to exclude certain Russian banks from the international Swift banking payment system. Other sanctions are aimed directly at the Russian president ...

2022-03-02

All eyes on the events unfolding in Ukraine

As you may have noticed, these days there is much less talk about COVID and much more about geopolitics and military strategy. After Switzerland, England has put an end to health-related restrictions,...

2022-02-22

The Military tensions in Eastern Europe disrupt markets

Volatility has been particularly high in recent days, and it seems the situation will last longer for both the stock and currency markets. The main factor remains the situation between Russia and Ukra...

2022-02-17

The ECB changes its tune on inflation

Last Thursday, the Bank of England decided to raise its base rate to 0.50%. The decision comes after a previous hike in December from 0.10% to 0.25%. While the BoE aims to keep inflation at around 2%,...

2022-02-09

Inflation… Inflation…

The US dollar reached a high of 1.1121 against the euro last Friday. The greenback is being buoyed by good economic figures and the prospect of a rate hike by the Fed. Gross domestic product growth ro...

2022-02-02

Turbulence!

Ladies and gentlemen, please fasten your seatbelts: we are currently experiencing turbulence. A glance at the Bloomberg terminal is enough to realise that we are in a risk-off period. Here are some ex...

2022-01-26

Bond yields on the rise

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released last Wednesday by the US Department of Labor once again highlights the period of high inflation we are currently going through. In the US, prices rose by 7% las...

2022-01-19

20 years ago … the Euro!

We’re off to a gentle start with this first week of the new year. First, it is an opportunity to celebrate a birthday. Twenty years ago, on 1 January 2002, the euro was born. True, it had existed sinc...

2022-01-06

The Ankara roller coaster

The central banks of the United States, Europe, England and Norway, and even our own Swiss National Bank, held meetings this week. As the pandemic rages on, reinvigorated this time by the Omicron vari...

2021-12-22

Central bank week

As the year draws to a close and volumes gradually dry up, the market has now entered a central bank super week. Against the backdrop of soaring inflation, some twenty central banks will hold their mo...

2021-12-15

Year-end volatility

A week ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, recently reappointed to the position, told the Senate Banking Committee that the risks of more persistent inflation have increased. Until now, he had repeatedly sa...

2021-12-08

A not so transitory inflation

The Chairman of the US Federal Reserve reviewed his position yesterday afternoon and now thinks it is time to stop taking inflation as a temporary event in the US. Powell said the Fed had also been co...

2021-12-01

J. Powell at the head of the FED for four more years

The US dollar is still shining on the foreign exchange market. This Monday it hit a high for year against the euro at $1.1226 and posted gains against all the other main currencies as well. Against th...

2021-11-24

Inflation and the dollar continue to go up

Just one week ago, the United States published its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. Inflation surpassed all expectations at an exceptional 6.2% annualised rate, the highest in thirty years! Pri...

2021-11-17

Stock markets move higher before the FED

Last week, the main stock markets continued the rebound that began in early October. The three major indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq) set new records.
...

2021-11-03

Race for the FED’s presidency on track

Last Wednesday, the Fed announced as expected that it would begin tapering its bond purchases from this month, noting economic activity and employment ‘have continued to strengthen’ and that inflation...

2021-11-10

Swiss franc on the top

Last week, to find some volatility one needed look to currency pairs outside the spotlight, i.e. not the EUR/USD. Several events having an impact on Germany weighed on the single currency, wh...

2021-10-27

The greenback retreats

This week, the euro-dollar parity moved into the green after a low of 1.1524 on 12 October. With a current exchange rate of 1.1640 this represents an increase of 116 points. Despite monetary tightenin...

2021-10-20

UK interest rates. Time to rise ?

While the status quo will remain in Europe, where the European Central Bank continues to maintain an expansive monetary policy, on other side of the Atlantic the Fed is foreseeing a tightening of its ...

2021-10-13

Energy prices are giving cause for worry

All over the world, inflation figures continue to rise. Prices in the eurozone increased by 3.4% in August. This is the highest level in 13 years. In Germany last month, prices accelerated again with ...

2021-10-06

Looking after volatility

The dollar has emerged stronger from the past few eventful days and is trading at its highest levels in 2021 against the euro. The greenback rose against almost all currencies as the yield on the 10-...

2021-09-29

The markets face many uncertainties

At the end of last week, economic indicators pointed to some favourable developments in the United States, and not-so-favourable ones in Switzerland. At Uncle Sam’s, the Philly Fed index, which measur...

2021-09-22

US inflation below expectations.

There are no big fluctuations to note among the major currencies this week. The euro-dollar parity has moved within a narrow 40–basis point range centred on USD 1.18 in the past few days. The greenbac...

2021-09-15

The US created less job than expected in August

During Jackson Hole meeting last week Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could begin reducing its monthly bond purchases this year, though it won’t be in a hurry to begin raisin...

2021-09-08

Jackson Hole reassures the markets

The annual central bankers’ symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed took place last weekend from Friday to Sunday. Because of the pandemic, the event was held virtually and not in Jackson Hole, Wyomin...

2021-09-01

Just before Jackson Hole

Last Friday the greenback hit a new high for 2021 against the single currency, pushing it down to 1.1664. But the US currency could not maintain its upward trajectory. Despite the still prudent positi...

2021-08-25

China regulatory crackdown continues

Last Thursday 28^th, the U.S. central bank announced that it was leaving rates unchanged and promised to continue supporting American economy. The securities purchase program also remains un...

2021-08-04

A matter of small dots

Everything is a matter of a few points!
...

2021-08-18

One dollar shaped

After two months’ consolidation in the 1.1800-1.1950 range, volatility returned to the EURUSD. And the value of the greenback once again increased against the single currency to very close to the year...

2021-08-11

Unchanged monetary policy

Last week, the European Central Bank decided not to change its monetary policy. Noting that the economy is still recovering but under that the threat of the pandemic and the Delta variant remains, the...

2021-07-28

Delta variant disrupts the economic recovery

The US dollar is trading close its high this year against the euro (1.1704 on 31 March). It is supported by favourable economic data and the fact that, apparently, the Delta variant is not affecting t...

2021-07-21

International tax reform approved

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin is not ready to call for an end to the U.S. central bank’s bond-buying stimulus given where the labor market stands today. If the labor m...

2021-07-14

US dollar is waking up

The currency market was quite calm at the beginning of this summer week as it awaited the Fed minutes that will be published on Wednesday. With no catalyst to precipitate major change, currency pairs ...

2021-07-07

Temporary inflation?

The EUR/USD is moving in a narrow range as we enter the summer months. The 1.1900–1.2000 level sits in the middle of the 1.1700–1.2300 range that the pair has remained in since the beginning of this y...

2021-06-30

Swiss National Bank keeps its expansionary monetary policy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday that inflation has risen but is still transitory and will be back to its 2% target as soon as supply imbalances resolve. During the last week meeting...

2021-06-24

An eventful week

This an eventful week with several central bank meetings – including the Fed’s last night – and lots of economic indicators. Last week, the Bank of Canada decided to hold its key rate steady at 0.25%....

2021-06-17

Growth has turned out less vigorous than expected

The EUR/USD parity is still in a period of consolidation. For almost two months now, it has moved between 1.200 and 1.2275 in anticipation of events which could give it new momentum. The publication o...

2021-06-10

The Federal Council withdraws from the discussions on the framework agreement with Europe

The US economy grew at an annualised 6.4% in the first quarter. Weekly unemployment claims are at their lowest since March of last year after dropping to 406,000 from 444,000 the week before. Redundan...

2021-06-02

Foreign exchange market has been quiet

The foreign exchange market has been very calm over the past week. The dollar remains weak against the major currencies: the EURUSD parity is close to its highs for the year and the USDCHF remains bel...

2021-05-26

EUR/USD parity is moving again towards the high end of its fluctuation range

The EUR/USD parity is moving again towards the high end of its fluctuation range this year. After hitting a high of 1.1704 against the single currency at the end of March, the dollar continue to decli...

2021-05-19

Forecasters are having a hard time quantifying the impact of the pandemic on the economy

US non-farm payroll figures for the month of April were undoubtedly the highlight of last week. While forecasts had counted on close to one million new jobs, the number came out far below expectations...

2021-05-12

The maple leaf currency continues to appreciate

The dollar regained some strength the past few days and forced the euro back to the 1.2000 mark. The parity had reached 1.2150 before the FOMC meeting last Thursday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again...

2021-05-05

A week punctuated by central banks announcements

Last week moved to the rhythm of central bank meetings, and it was the Bank of Canada that got the ball rolling. As expected, the BoC held its key rate steady at 0.25%, but it has also started to pare...

2021-04-28

China posts impressive growth in its Gross Domestic Product

The dollar continued on the downward trend that began over the Easter weekend. Having strengthened as far as 1.1704 against the euro, the parity easily moved above 1.2000 at the beginning of the week....

2021-04-21

Swiss economy expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter this year

Last Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve released the minutes of its March FOMC meeting. There were no surprises. The Fed reiterated its desire to see its two objectives fulfilled (i.e. 2% inflation and...

2021-04-14

New investment plan soon to be unveiled

The dollar fell against the euro over the long Easter weekend and at the start of the week. It had nevertheless reached new highs for this year at 1.1717 against the single currency, 0.947...

2021-04-07

Turkish lira in turmoil

The US Federal Reserve kept its key rates unchanged – as expected – after its monetary policy meeting last week. The Fed is keeping the Fed Funds target rate between 0% and 0.25%, with monthly bond pu...

2021-03-24

One of the biggest stimulus package in US history

Last Thursday, one year into the pandemic, President Biden signed a stimulus package that, at $1.9 trillion – about the size of the GDP of Italy or Brazil – is one of the biggest in US history. The mo...

2021-03-17

Increased volatility in the financial markets

This has been another week marked by heightened volatility in the financial markets, swayed in part by upward pressure on interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic, but above all by an increase in ...

2021-03-10

Optimistic general sentiment as a whole

During the COVID crisis last spring, the Swiss National Bank had to engage in massive forex interventions to keep the franc from appreciating further than CHF 1.0500 against the euro. Demand deposits ...

2021-03-03

EUR vs CHF: representing a one-year high, one euro bought you more than 1.10 CHF this morning

With infection rates falling by 70 % within three weeks of the start of the national vaccination campaign, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced a roadmap to gradually bring the UK out of lockdow...

2021-02-24

Nikkei is attracting attention with its performance

The forex market has been quite stable in recent days. Monday was a public holiday in the United States and much of Asia was also absent for the Chinese New Year celebrations which stretched from last...

2021-02-17

US unemployment figures not as good as hoped

Since the beginning of the year, the Dollar has been on an upward trend, buoyed by manufacturing figures which outstrip those of Europe, the roll-out of the vaccination programme and the hopes awakene...

2021-02-10

The single currency remains on the defensive against the Dollar

The single currency remains on the defensive against the Dollar. Last week Klaas Knot, who sits on the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, said that the ECB had room to push its rate further in...

2021-02-03

Euro is on the defensive

The euro is on the defensive: although it started the year with a bang, markets are wondering if they were not too bullish at the start of the month. The pandemic is far from being under control despi...

2021-01-27

Third lockdown for the UK

The dollar has this new year as it had ended it, i.e. Weak against the euro, the franc, the yen and the yuan among others. Chicago Fed Chairman Charles Evans has said monetary policy will remain accom...

2021-01-06

2020 marked by Coronavirus and Brexit

The single currency continues to hover around its highest level of the year in these last days of 2020. It had begun on January 1 at 1.1210. 12 months later, it is worth 10 cents more at 1.2200. 2020 ...

2020-12-23

Germany starts new lockdown

Even as more and more countries go on partial or complete lockdown again, the euro seems unresponsive to the bad news and remains above 1.2100 against the dollar. In Germany, Angela Merkel has confirm...

2020-12-16

Situation still delicate in the euro zone

The euro broke in spectacular fashion out the 1.1600–1.2000 range it had remained in since July 23. Appetite for so-called risky investments is back! The arrival of several vaccines on the market is f...

2020-12-09

Janet Yellen nominated as Treasury secretary

The euro is once again trying to break out of the 1.1600–1.2000 range it has remained in since the beginning of the summer. The upcoming arrival of COVID-19 vaccines has rekindled appetite for risk, w...

2020-12-02

Transition of power starting

It has been another week without much movement on the foreign exchange market, where the EUR/USD parity has moved between 1.1800 and 1.1920. There was an attempt on Monday to break above that range, b...

2020-11-25

Wave of optimism on the markets

Right behind Pzifer, the laboratory Moderna has announced the arrival of a new vaccine against COVID-19. Moderna Therapeutics has said it achieved 94.5% efficacy after completion of its advanced clini...

2020-11-18

Joe Biden Wins Presidential Election

Volatility came back to the EUR/USD parity at the start of the week. After trading at 1.1650 the day after the US presidential election, it jumped to 1.1920 on Monday. And while President Trump has ye...

2020-11-11

America facing electoral suspense

The EUR/USD parity was not disrupted during Election Day on November 3. The dollar initially strengthened but once again failed to break the support at 1.1600. It thus remains within the same range si...

2020-11-05

Spain: the first country in Europe to announce more than a million infections

The EUR/USD parity had returned to 1.1800, but it lacked any more momentum to continue its progression and stopped at 1.1880. The resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe has resulted in new health restrictio...

2020-10-28

The showdown continues

The dollar lost ground at the start of the week against the euro. After hovering between 1.1650 and 1.1820 throughout most of October, it seems the parity wants to break through the upper limit of the...

2020-10-21

Dissensions between Republicans and Democrats

The EUR/USD parity saw no real change over the week. First of all, Monday was a public holiday in the United States – Columbus Day – and then we have a market that already seems to be awaiting the res...

2020-10-14

The usual threatening “no-deal” yoyo

It has been another week of consolidation for the EURUSD pair which is moving in the middle of the 1.1600–1.2000 fluctuation range in place since July 23. The greenback has lost a little bit of ground...

2020-10-07

No surprises in the Swiss National Bank policy

The euro remains at the bottom of its trading range of 1.1600–1.2000 against the dollar in which it has been moving since July 23. The greenback is buoyed by encouraging comments from the Fed and by a...

2020-09-30

Optimistic central banks

After attempting to break through the 1.2000 bar against the dollar, the euro has returned to the bottom of the 1.1650–1.2000 range it has remained in since mid-July. The two main central banks have e...

2020-09-23

US Dollar very weak once again

The dollar is one again weaker against the major currencies again and the euro is trying to break through the 1.2000 mark. It briefly crossed it yesterday for the first time since 2018. On the occasio...

2020-09-02

Historically low level for Norges Bank

Even as the euro has surged against the dollar since August 12, it has been unable to break past the symbolic 1.2000 mark. There are several factors that may explain why. First of all, while the minut...

2020-08-26

Brexit: New round of negotiations

Once again, the dollar lost some ground against major currencies such as the euro, the Swiss franc or the Japanese yen. In fact, against the euro and the franc, it traded at its lower level of the yea...

2020-08-19

Eventful week

A lot has happened since last Wednesday: the Fed meeting against the backdrop of the still-worrying progression of the pandemic – particularly in the United States – and the high volatility for the EU...

2020-08-05

US Dollar struggling

The EUR/USD parity has soared spectacularly in recent days in the wake of the European summit in Brussels. While the single currency was worth $1.1229 at the beginning of the session on July 1, it alm...

2020-07-29

Europe agrees on its recovery plan

It took four days of long and difficult negotiations for the 27 members of the European Union to reach an agreement on the economic recovery plan. At the end of a marathon summit, the joint Franco-Ger...

2020-07-22

Pandemic evolution draws financial markets’ attention

The EUR/USD parity was at the top of the 1.1160–1.1420 consolidation range at the start of the week. In recent days, with no major publications coming out at the moment, all eyes have been on the evol...

2020-07-15

Gold at its highest value since 2011

The EUR/USD parity further consolidated in the 1.1200–1.1400 range over the week. A shorter trading session on Friday in New York due to a national holiday the next day and the start of the summer hol...

2020-07-08

New York Stock Exchange reacts negatively

The euro has traded within a very narrow range against the dollar, consolidating at 1.1200–1.1400 since the beginning of June. The pandemic continues to spread in the Central and Southern United State...

2020-07-01

Strong divergences

The Swiss National Bank held its key rate steady at -0.75% last week, as had been unanimously expected. The SNB reaffirmed its commitment to an ultra-expansive monetary policy on Thursday, saying that...

2020-06-24

Economic pragmatism until 2022

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last week, in the 0%–0.25% range. This decision was widely anticipated by the markets. At the end of the meeting, Jerome Powell said: ‘They will remai...

2020-06-17

Attention drawn on the FED

The European Central Bank boosted the markets last Thursday as it announced it was expanding in its emergency programme. Specifically, the €750-billion-euro Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEEP...

2020-06-10

Challenging discussions

Last Wednesday, Ursula Von Der Leyen presented the European Commission’s recovery plan in the wake of that proposed by Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron. The announcement of this €750 billion recovery...

2020-06-03